The Numbers That Separate 99.5% Payback from 95% Returns—and Why Casinos Hope You Won’t Notice
I discovered something interesting the first time I really started paying attention to video poker pay tables. It wasn’t dramatic or earth-shattering. It was just a couple of numbers on a machine display that changed everything about how I understood casino video poker. Once I grasped the difference between a 9/6 and a 6/5 machine, I realized I’d been throwing money away.
Let me be direct: most casual players have no idea these numbers exist. Casinos absolutely love this. The lack of awareness is literally costing players thousands annually.
Decoding the Numbers: What 9/6 and 6/5 Actually Mean—Breaking Down the Full House and Flush Payouts That Define Your Long-Term Winning Potential
This is where everything starts. Understanding what those numbers represent is the foundation for everything else.
When someone says “9/6 Jacks or Better,” they’re using professional shorthand. The first number refers to the payout for a Full House (per coin wagered), and the second number refers to the payout for a Flush (per coin wagered). That’s it. Simple.
In a 9/6 game, if you bet one coin and hit a Full House, you win 9 coins. Hit a Flush? You win 6 coins. Everything else on the pay table remains identical across different versions.
Now take a 6/5 machine. Same game structure. Same card probabilities. But the payouts have been cut. Full House? Now it’s 6 coins. Flush? Now it’s 5 coins.
Seems minor. Like we’re talking about a couple dollars difference per hand. You’re not. The mathematical impact is massive because these hands hit regularly. A Full House occurs roughly once every 120 hands in Jacks or Better. Flushes hit roughly once every 109 hands.
When casinos started tightening pay tables decades ago, they discovered something brilliant: most players don’t notice. They see the flashy display. They see the royal flush jackpot number. They sit down and play. Months later, they wonder why they’re consistently losing.
The difference between 9 and 6 on a Full House? That’s a one-third reduction in payout for one of your most frequent winning hands. The difference between 6 and 5 on a Flush? That’s an 17% reduction.
Let me show you other variations so you understand the landscape:
9/5 Jacks or Better: Full House stays at 9, but Flush drops to 5. This payback percentage? 98.45%. Still decent, but noticeably worse than full-pay.
8/6 Jacks or Better: Both payouts drop. Full House to 8, Flush to 6. This hits 98.39% payback.
8/5 Jacks or Better: This is incredibly common. Full House 8, Flush 5. You get 97.30% payback.
7/5 Jacks or Better: Even worse. 96.15% payback.
6/5 Jacks or Better: This is the one casinos really push. 94.99% payback. Some people call this an acceptable compromise. They’re wrong.
Here’s the practical reality: pros use a simple rule. They don’t play anything below 99% payback unless there are exceptional circumstances (like specific casino promotions). Recreational players should probably draw the line at 97% minimum. Anything below that, you’re basically playing a high-variance slot machine.
The reason these numbers matter so much comes down to probabilities. Unlike slots, where casinos can adjust how often you win without changing payout amounts, video poker has fixed card probabilities. The only way casinos can adjust their edge is through pay tables. A 1% difference in payback percentage might sound trivial, but over thousands of hands, it compounds into real money.
The $4.50 Per Hour Cost of Playing 6/5 Machines—Real Money Calculations Show How Inferior Pay Tables Drain Your Bankroll Over Time
Let me break down the actual financial cost of playing a 6/5 machine versus a 9/6 machine. This is where theory becomes reality.
Assume you’re playing at $1 per hand (betting 5 coins on a quarter machine) and averaging 500 hands per hour. That’s realistic for someone playing at a reasonable pace without rushing.
500 hands × $1 per hand = $500 per hour wagered
On a 9/6 machine (99.54% payback): Your expected loss = $500 × (1 – 0.9954) = $500 × 0.0046 = $2.30 per hour
On a 6/5 machine (94.99% payback): Your expected loss = $500 × (1 – 0.9499) = $500 × 0.0501 = $25.05 per hour
The difference? $25.05 – $2.30 = $22.75 per hour
I’ve heard people argue this isn’t that much. They’re thinking short-term. Let’s project longer.
Play 100 hours at a 9/6 machine: Expected loss = $230 Play 100 hours at a 6/5 machine: Expected loss = $2,505
That’s a $2,275 difference for the same time investment.
Play 500 hours annually (reasonable for a serious recreational player): 9/6 machine: $1,150 expected loss 6/5 machine: $12,525 expected loss
The annual difference? $11,375.
I’m not exaggerating. This is the mathematical reality. The $11,375 difference isn’t some theoretical number. It’s actual money flowing from your pocket to the casino’s vault.
Here’s another way to think about it. If you play one year at a 6/5 machine instead of a 9/6 machine, you could have funded a decent vacation by playing the better game. You literally paid for that bad decision with lost money.
But it gets worse if you’re playing higher stakes. A $5 per hand player (betting dollar coins at 5 coins) would face:
9/6: $11.50 per hour expected loss 6/5: $125.50 per hour expected loss
Over 100 hours: $1,150 versus $12,550. Same difference, multiplied by five.
What really bothers me about this? Most people making this choice have no idea they’re making it. They just sit down at the first available machine. They don’t check. They don’t compare. They assume all machines are roughly equivalent.
Let me be absolutely clear: they are not equivalent.
Why That Extra Credit Matters: The Math Behind Payback Percentages—How a Single Coin Difference in Payouts Translates to Thousands of Dollars in Expected Losses
Understanding payback percentages requires understanding how casinos calculate them. It’s not mystical. It’s pure mathematics combined with card probability.
Video poker with a 52-card deck can produce exactly 2,598,960 different five-card hand combinations. That number is fixed. The probability of hitting specific hands is therefore calculable and consistent. A Full House in Jacks or Better occurs in 3,744 out of 2,598,960 possible hands. That’s a probability of 0.144%.
Here’s how casinos calculate payback percentage:
For each possible hand:
- Calculate the probability of that hand occurring
- Multiply that probability by what it pays
- Sum all the values together
This gives you the total expected return.
Let me use a simplified example with just three hand types:
9/6 Machine:
- Pair of Jacks+ (most common winning hand): Probability 42.3%, Payout 1, Contribution = 0.423
- Full House: Probability 0.144%, Payout 9, Contribution = 0.01296
- Flush: Probability 0.197%, Payout 6, Contribution = 0.01182
(Plus dozens more hands for a 99.54% final total)
6/5 Machine:
- Pair of Jacks+: Probability 42.3%, Payout 1, Contribution = 0.423
- Full House: Probability 0.144%, Payout 6, Contribution = 0.00864
- Flush: Probability 0.197%, Payout 5, Contribution = 0.00985
(Plus dozens more hands for a 94.99% final total)
Notice what happened. By changing Full House from 9 to 6 (a reduction of 3 coins), we lost 0.00432% from the total. By changing Flush from 6 to 5 (a reduction of 1 coin), we lost 0.00197%. These tiny decrements add up to 4.55% total reduction in payback.
4.55% doesn’t sound enormous until you apply it to real money. That’s the difference between losing 46 cents per $100 wagered and losing $4.55 per $100 wagered. Literally 10 times worse.
The genius of the 6/5 scam is that players don’t see 4.55% difference. They see two numbers. The numbers look similar. The machines look identical. The game plays the same way. But mathematically, you’ve just signed up to lose ten times more money over the long run.
Here’s the thing that makes me frustrated: this mathematical reality is absolutely predictable. It’s not luck-based. It’s not variance-based. It’s simple arithmetic. Over thousands of hands, your results will converge toward these percentages.
If someone tells you they won at a 6/5 machine, they might be telling the truth. Short-term luck exists. But over 10,000 hands? 50,000 hands? The variance evens out. The mathematics take over. You’ll be down approximately 4.55% of your total wagered amount.
Spotting the Downgrade: Visual Tricks Casinos Use on Pay Tables—The Subtle Display Changes and Attractive Bonuses Designed to Distract from Reduced Payouts
This is where casinos get particularly clever. They’re not trying to hide the pay tables. They’re just strategically making them less noticeable.
The Progressive Jackpot Distraction:
The most common trick: put a huge progressive meter on top of the machine showing a massive royal flush jackpot. When the base royal flush payout is reduced, the progressive number grows larger to compensate. Players see a bigger prize.
Mathematically, they’re being taken advantage of.
I’ve seen a strategy repeated at casinos nationwide: offer 8/5 Jacks or Better with a 2% progressive meter on the royal flush. The base royal flush is 4,000 coins (at 5 coins bet), but the meter starts high—say $2,000. Now the marketing can say “Play for a bigger jackpot!” Players see the meter climbing and think they’re getting a better deal.
They’re not. The 2% progressive roughly compensates for the worse base pay table, but you’re playing a riskier game with higher volatility.
The Bonus Hand Sleight of Hand:
Another classic: offer games like Double Bonus where “four aces” pays dramatically more than regular four-of-a-kinds. On the surface, this looks generous.
The catch? Look at what’s been removed elsewhere. Two-pair payouts are often reduced. Full house payouts might be cut. The “bonus” for the rare hand (four aces occurs once every 4,165 hands) is offset by consistent reductions on hands that hit regularly.
I saw this at multiple casinos. Players get excited about hitting four aces and winning 160 coins. They don’t notice they’re getting only 1 coin for two pair instead of the standard 2 coins. Over thousands of hands, those two-pair reductions cost more than the rare four-ace bonuses gain.
The Multi-Denomination Trap:
Here’s something subtle that infuriates professionals: casinos place different pay tables at different denominations.
I walked through a casino and found that 25-cent machines had better pay tables than dollar machines. This is backward from historical norms. Players assumed dollar machines would be tighter (which is usually true), so they played quarters. The casino artificially created the opposite dynamic.
Why? Because high-volume quarter players generate different revenue than higher-stake dollar players. The casino can afford slightly better payouts on quarters because volume compensates.
The Location Psychology:
Where machines are placed matters enormously. The best-paying machines? Often tucked away in corners or back rooms. The worst-paying machines? Front and center, near the entrance, or by bars.
This isn’t accident. Players walking in see the flashy front-row machines. They sit down immediately without comparing. Players who care enough to search find better games in less obvious locations.
The Tournament Trap:
Video poker tournaments often use degraded pay tables. Players get excited about the tournament format and potential prize pool. They don’t realize the base game is 7/5 or worse instead of full-pay.
You’re playing inferior odds to compete for a prize that’s partially funded by the excess house edge.
The Cosmetic Update:
Casinos occasionally “upgrade” their video poker games to newer machines. The new machines look better—flashier display, smoother animation, better interface. Players think the machines improved.
Often, the pay tables got worse. Casinos used the refresh as cover for a downgrade.
Regional Trends: Where 9/6 Machines Disappeared and Why—Tracking the Decline of Full-Pay Video Poker from Atlantic City to Tribal Casinos Nationwide
The history of video poker pay tables tells a story of gradual deterioration.
The Golden Age (1990s):
In the 1990s, finding a 9/6 Jacks or Better was unremarkable. Atlantic City had entire rooms dedicated to video poker with excellent pay tables. The Tropicana had a full room of full-pay games near the North Tower hotel. Serious video poker players could find multiple casinos with solid options.
The Recession Squeeze (2008-2014):
After the Great Recession, everything tightened. Casinos needed cash. Video poker was an obvious target because players who knew what they were doing had already found the best games.
In 2010, MGM bought out Boyd Gaming’s interest in the Borgata. The full-pay machines disappeared immediately. Players who’d been playing profitable games for years suddenly found themselves grinding through reduced pay tables.
Atlantic City’s situation was particularly brutal. Tropicana removed its entire video poker room. Casinos that once competed on quality now competed on tourism. Video poker wasn’t attracting tourists—it was sustaining locals. Casinos wanted tourists gambling on slots and table games.
The Post-Recession Reality (2014-2019):
By this period, 9/6 Jacks or Better had become rare even in video poker-friendly markets. You could still find good games if you knew where to look, but searching became required. No longer could a casual player just walk in and find decent games.
Las Vegas locals casinos like the South Point and Station properties maintained good pay tables because they understood customer loyalty. They knew players would return for good video poker. The tourist casinos on the Strip gradually phased out their games or downgraded them.
The COVID Collapse (2020-2021):
When casinos shut down for COVID and reopened, most remaining nuggets of good video poker had vanished. This was the killing blow for Atlantic City as a video poker destination.
The Tropicana, now under Caesars ownership, went from an entire room dedicated to video poker to approximately a dozen Joker Wild games near the Boogie Nights nightspot.
By 2020, Atlantic City had effectively surrendered video poker to online casinos.
The Current Landscape (2024-2025):
Full-pay 9/6 Jacks or Better is now rare everywhere.
Las Vegas: Downtown and local casinos have the best games. You can find 9/6, some 9/7 Double Bonus, and occasionally games over 100%. The Strip? 9/6 starts at $5 denomination at a few casinos. High-roll only.
Atlantic City: Mostly degraded games. 9/5 at best at most casinos. One or two locations have scattered full-pay games, but nothing like the old days.
Las Vegas Strip: Essentially abandonment of serious video poker. These casinos don’t want advantage players. They want tourists.
Regional casinos: Dependent on location and competition. Areas with competition sometimes have decent games. Monopoly casinos? Expect 8/5 or worse.
Online: This is the surprising survivor. Many online casinos still offer 99%+ RTP games because digital space doesn’t cost money and competition is fierce.
Tribal casinos: Highly variable. Some offer excellent games, others terrible ones. Completely dependent on individual tribe management.
The Disappearance: Why Quality Games Are Extinct
Several factors caused this systematic degradation:
The Professionalization Effect:
As information spread online, skilled players found and exploited good pay tables. Casinos got tired of losing money to advantage players on video poker machines.
The Space Economics:
A 9/6 machine occupies the exact same floor space as a 6/5 machine. If you’re Las Vegas management deciding how to use that square footage, the 6/5 machine generates more revenue. Every time.
The Tourist vs. Local Divide:
Tourists play slots. Locals play video poker. When casinos decided to prioritize tourism revenue, video poker became collateral damage.
The System Standardization:
Modern casino management systems allow corporate oversight of games across multiple properties. It’s now possible to enforce uniform downgraded pay tables across dozens of locations simultaneously. Individual casinos no longer have autonomy to offer good games.
Practical Guidance: What to Actually Do
Let me give you actionable advice based on everything above.
If you have access to online gaming (New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Nevada):
Play there. Period. Most legitimate online casinos offer 99%+ RTP video poker. You’ll get full-pay Jacks or Better, Deuces Wild, Bonus Poker, and other variants with excellent pay tables. Mobile compatibility means you can play from home with no travel costs. This is your best-case scenario.
If you’re in Las Vegas:
Don’t play on the Strip unless you’re a high roller (minimum $5 denomination). Go to downtown casinos or locals casinos. Plaza has recently upgraded their machines with many 99%+ games. Four Queens offers some 100%+ games. Station Casinos properties consistently offer excellent pay tables. The South Point and Red Rock are professional-quality venues.
These places understand that good video poker attracts repeat customers. They compete on pay table quality.
If you’re in Atlantic City:
Be selective. Check casino websites or call ahead. Most properties have mediocre games now, but Borgata and Golden Nugget occasionally have pockets of decent video poker. Ocean Casino has some playable options. Avoid the others.
If you’re in a regional casino:
Ask the slot attendant directly. “Where are your best-paying video poker machines?” Most attendants know. They deal with this question regularly. If they seem confused or dismissive, that tells you something. The casino isn’t proud of their video poker offerings.
If you’re at an airport:
Skip it. Airport video poker is notoriously bad. We’re talking 7/5 or worse. Wait until you get to an actual casino.
The Strategy Component
I should mention this before ending: knowing about pay tables is only half the battle. You also need to play optimal strategy.
Even a 99.54% game becomes a 97% game if you don’t know when to break up a pair for a four-card royal flush. The math only works if you’re making statistically optimal decisions.
Most casual players don’t know optimal strategy. They make intuitive plays based on poker hand rankings. This costs them 1-2% in returns.
Don’t be that person. Use a strategy card. It’s legal. Casinos expect it. Professional players don’t memorize perfect strategy in their heads—they verify their decisions.
If you can’t afford the mental effort of learning strategy and referencing it, at least play full-pay games so that your suboptimal play is costly within an acceptable range.
The Bigger Picture
The decline of quality video poker reflects a broader casino industry trend: casinos are optimizing purely for profit extraction rather than player value.
This isn’t new. Casinos have always been focused on profit. But there was once an implicit understanding: if you played well, you could find good games. That understanding has eroded.
Modern casino management prioritizes metrics like “average loss per square foot” and “minimum performance from each machine.” They’ve systematized the downgrade. There’s no discretion anymore. No local casino managers who could authorize a good pay table for competitive reasons.
Everything’s controlled centrally. Every machine’s pay table is set by algorithm and oversight.
If you’re nostalgic for the “old days” of video poker when you could actually find quality games with reasonable luck of profit, I understand. Those days are over.
What’s left is: find online games if available, hunt for the rare decent machines in locals casinos if in Las Vegas, or accept that you’re playing a pure gambling game where the house has built a significant advantage.
Final Thoughts
The $4.50 per hour cost I calculated—that wasn’t hypothetical. That’s real. That’s the financial consequence of sitting down at a random 6/5 machine instead of searching for a 9/6.
Most people pay that cost without realizing it. They think video poker is just unlucky. They don’t realize they selected a machine with 4.55% worse payback than the best available option.
The casinos hope you never figure this out. They benefit immensely from your ignorance.
Now that you know, you have a choice. You can ignore this information and play whatever’s in front of you. That’s your right.
Or you can actually care about where you’re putting your money. You can search for the best pay table available. You can invest five minutes learning which hand combinations to hold for your machine.
The difference over a year is thousands of dollars.
That’s worth taking seriously. That’s worth walking past a convenient machine to find a better one. That’s worth putting a strategy card in your pocket before you go to the casino.
Because at the end of the day, video poker isn’t luck. It’s math. And the math is clearly on the side of anyone willing to do the basic research.
Go get the advantage. Your bankroll will appreciate the effort.
